2021 Week 5 Recap

Week five gave us plenty more close games in our simulation, with lots of ranked teams falling, and some shockers early in conference play. Let’s get specific!

Games of Note and Predictions

#17 Wisconsin 27 – #25 Michigan 26 (OT)

Scott- Wisconsin 24, Michigan 16

Gavin- Wisconsin 28, Michigan 17

The Badgers held on against the Wolverines in an absolute thriller in the Big Ten.  UW makes it six in a row against Michigan at Camp Randall, but only by the slimmest of margins.  Wisconsin lined up for two after scoring in OT to muscle their way in for the game-winner. This was a massive bounce-back performance by the Badgers after losing big last week.  This gives Michigan their first loss on the season.  Jim Harbaugh can’t get off the schneid against ranked opponents on the road, as he falls to 2-9 on such games as the head man in Ann Arbor.

#4 Florida 30 – Kentucky 12

Scott- Florida 38, Kentucky 30

Gavin- Florida 42 – Kentucky 21

Florida continues to dominate this series by shutting down Will Levis and the Kentucky offense.  If not for Wan’Dale Robinson getting loose one time, the Gators easily could have help UK without a touchdown.  Florida’s offense looked solid too, as Dan Mullen was able to devise an offense to methodically move the ball once the game looked to be in hand.  UF wins the battle of the undefeated, and Kentucky will have a chance against another ranked team coming to Lexington next week in LSU.  The Gators’ playoff push continues with Vandy.

#14 Texas 28 – #24 TCU 17

Scott- Texas 31, TCU 28

Gavin-TCU 35, Texas 31

While Kentucky couldn’t snap its recent misfortunate against a rival, Texas was able to do so.  The Longhorn defense looked amazing in a road test against an offense that looked previously unstoppable.  The Frogs punted seven times in this one!  Texas’ offense did just enough to control this one and avoided the lookahead spot with Red River next Saturday. Bijan Robinson rushed for another two scores. By the passing minute, Texas is looking like the clear #2 in the Big XII, and maybe even #1 depending on next week.  TCU will look to rebound in a visit to Texas Tech.

#10 Cincinnati 25 – #8 Notre Dame 22 (OT)

Scott- Notre Dame 35, Cincinnati 17

Gavin- Notre Dame 28, Cincinnati 10

In one of the biggest games of Cincinnati’s history, the Bearcats passed a tough test in South Bend Saturday afternoon. UC defeats the Irish, snapping Notre Dame’s 26 game home winning streak! That speaks to the talent of this roster Luke Fickell has built in the Queen City. While ND was able to push around a stout Wisconsin defense last weekend, Cincinnati had no part of that this go-around. Cincinnati has firmly established themselves as a legit playoff contender. Now, they need to keep winning, hope Notre Dame and Indiana rebound nicely, and root for as much chaos as possible.

#19 Arizona State 26 – #23 UCLA 25 (OT)

Scott- Arizona State 39, UCLA 34

Gavin- Arizona State 35, UCLA 31

In an impressive road victory, the Sun Devils escape after this battle of ranked teams in Southern California.  UCLA missed an extra point in overtime to clinch this one for ASU.  UCLA has suddenly lost two straight by one point!  While this may speak for some better fortune later in the season, Chip Kelly must be hurting right now.  Both defenses were very impressive to me, shutting down pretty stellar offenses for periods at a time.  Senior corner Jack Jones had a pair of interceptions in this one for ASU.  Arizona State now has a huge victory, needed in order to achieve their goal of winning the South.  UCLA has a nice opportunity to get back in the win column next week against lowly Arizona.

#6 Alabama 46 – #22 Ole Miss 14

Scott- Alabama 52, Ole Miss 38

Gavin- Alabama 45, Ole Miss 14

Well, this one got out of hand, and what a prediction by Gavin here.  Alabama proved last year was not sustainable for this Ole Miss offense against the Tide’s defense.  Matt Corral and the Rebel attack had no answers for converting against Bama.  Kiffin knew his defense would have trouble slowing down the likes of John Metchie on the outside, but the offense could not even come close to keeping pace with Bryce Young.  Alabama looks very strong on both sides of the ball since the Florida game, and is looking to get on a run.  They’ll have quite the test in A&M next week, as they travel to Kyle Field.  Ole Miss gets Arkansas at home.

#3 Oklahoma 32 – Kansas State 13

Scott- Oklahoma 49, Kansas State 23

Gavin- Oklahoma 28, Kansas State 24

For the first time in three years, OU has finally beaten K-State.  Much like we thought beforehand, even though Texas looms next week, the Wildcats had all of Oklahoma’s attention.  Spencer Rattler and the OU offense were fine, but the defense really showed out in Manhattan.  Deuce Vaughn had no room off the tackles, as Nick Bonitto seemed to meet him every time that he tried to break it outside.  OU continues the playoff push, and looks every bit the part of a title contender right now.  We’ll see if they can keep their focus moving forward.  But this was a huge road test passed for OU.  KSU has suddenly lost two straight, and they have to face Top 10 Iowa State next.

Auburn 42 – #16 LSU 36

Scott- LSU 30, Auburn 24

Gavin- LSU 27, Auburn 26

Auburn finally escaped Baton Rouge victorious for the first time since 1999.  This could prove to be a statement win for Bryan Harsin in his first season on the plains.  Bo Nix played the best game of his career in my opinion, accounting for four touchdowns in a hostile environment with ZERO turnovers.  Auburn’s gain is LSU’s loss however.  Pressure is mounting for Coach O, as the Tigers already have two losses, albeit close ones.  But the expectation is winning at LSU, and a whole lot of it.  Orgeron needs to fix the defense, as they have proven to be very inconsistent.  The Tigers will have to avoid an upset opportunity in Lexington next week to avoid dropping to .500 on the year.  Auburn welcomes rival Georgia to Jordan-Hare in what should be an extremely tough test.

Upset Picks:

Nebraska 35 – Northwestern 14

Scott- Nebraska 31, Northwestern 24

While this series had been close for almost every previous game, this one wasn’t such (Although closer than in real-life… Yikes). Nebraska moves to 4-2, and hands Northwestern their first loss of the year. We’ll see if these two can score enough wins to contend for the West down the line.

Southern Miss 26 – Rice 21

Gavin- Rice 31, Southern Miss 24

Rice hasn’t found the magic this year thus far, and now odds will be stacked against them if they really want to reach a bowl game, despite playing the Golden Eagles close.  Southern Miss gets the post-Bama win it needed badly, and now hosts UTEP.  Rice goes to the Alamodome next in another difficult game for Mike Bloomgren and the Owls.

Our Pick Results

Scott: 7-2 (36-9 on season)

Gavin: 5-4 (35-10)

I overtook Gavin this week, in large part due to my upset pick hitting, but we have plenty of season left to go!

Other Games of Note

Virginia 34 – #15 Miami 30

The Hurricanes never seem to disappoint these days. UVA picks up their first conference win of the season on South Beach, as Miami suffers their second loss of the young season. They don’t look like serious challengers in the ACC.

Iowa 37 – Maryland 18

Maryland can’t use the home crowd to its advantage, dropping the first game of the season. Still, Mike Locksley’s program is showing life. Iowa is 2-0 in conference so far, despite two non-con losses.

Pittsburgh 30 – Georgia Tech 20

It wasn’t pretty, but Pitt keeps on winning. 5-0 for Pat Narduzzi as Tech drops to 0-3 in the ACC already. The Geoff Collins hire isn’t producing too many favorable results on the field.

Georgia State 27 – Appalachian State 24

In an absolute stunner, the 1-3 Panthers, who had looked pretty disappointing thus far, defend home turf against one of the Sun Belt favorites in App State. This is a crushing blow for the Mountaineers in their race for the East against Coastal, but it’s still early for both teams.

#2 Ohio State 34 – Rutgers 22

Not an impressive showing for the Buckeyes, but a win is a win I suppose. Rutgers should be able to build off of competing with an elite squad moving forward. OSU returns to the Shoe to face Maryland next.

Boise State 31 – Nevada 16

While both of these Mountain West favorites have been letdowns thus far, BSU is starting to right the ship much more now because of this victory. Nevada falls to 1-3! None of the losses are against terrible foes, but I expected Jay Norvell to have his team much more prepared than it has been.

Liberty 12- UAB 0

UAB is a program back from the dead under the tremendous direction of Bill Clark. This game marked the opening of a brand-new stadium in downtown Birmingham. Unfortunately, despite shutting down the Flames’ high-powered offense, the Blazers still couldn’t dent the scoreboard as Liberty spoils the celebration. UAB has been extremely disappointing, with a 1-4 record thus far.

#20 Oklahoma State 22 – Baylor 11

A team that no one seems to talk about, Oklahoma State just keeps on winning. Baylor played pretty well in a tough spot in Stillwater at night, but the Cowboy defense is amongst the best in the country this year. Gundy heads to their bye week at 5-0, while BU hosts WVU next week, looking to snap their 2-game skid.

#1 Clemson 44 – Boston College 15

While the #1 Tigers survived a scare last week in Raleigh, there was no such tension this week against BC. Clemson ran through the Eagles defense like a hot knife through butter, and Clemson has already moved to 3-0 in conference. BC has lost two straight, but the offense should rebound against teams not named Clemson.

Penn State 36 – Indiana 29

I’m not really buying Penn State too much this year, despite the 4-1 record and impressive win against Auburn. Maybe I’m wrong, but I can’t get that season-opening throttling by the hands of Wisconsin out of my head. They beat Indiana by a single touchdown here, and I’m not entirely sure how good either of these teams are. Regardless, PSU gets back to .500 in B1G play.

South Alabama 29 – Louisiana 24

We’ve already has one stunner in the Sun Belt this week, so let’s make it two! The Jaguars stifle Levi Lewis and the division-favorite Cajuns’ offense in the second half to lead a furious comeback and claim a divisional win. Don’t count out Lafayette just yet, but keep in mind USA now has the tiebreaker. Do the Jaguars have staying power in the conference race? Time will tell.

Colorado 29 – #12 USC 28

Yeah, I don’t think too many people saw this one coming. USC looked amazing through the first month, so they naturally go to Boulder and get knocked off. Colorado has put up great fights this year against high competition and this week was no different. As seen with the Trojans napping through much of this one, the Pac-12 remains to be a “dog eat dog” conference.

That wraps up Week 5 everyone! Thanks for coming back to read each and every week! Be sure to follow us on Twitter @ncaafbsim – We’re trying to live-tweet through some real-life CFB action so make sure to tune in for more!

-Scott

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